Horse racing fans will remember Barbaro’s tragic fall at the 2006 Preakness Stakes

Weighing risk and reward is something we do all the time. Yet most of us aren’t very good at it. Economists (and psychologists) say we are risk-averse; that is, we’ll take the safe route, even if the payout is lower at the end.

A value-conscious handicapper can be prone to going out of his or her way to avoid chalk. The favorite at a sporting event is often overrated. But Big Brown wiped out the competition at two major stakes races this year: the Florida Derby and the Kentucky Derby. Big Brown is a proven commodity.

Horseplayers will find it easier to place a bet on Big Brown now that his odds for Saturday’s Preakness Stakes have moved from 1-4 to 1-2. The change is because of the late inclusion of Gayego in the 13-horse field. Gayego is the second favorite at 8-1; if you believe he would win this race more than once in nine tries, then Gayego is your value pick.